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Kentucky vs LSU prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UK 25% win76% LSU
24Projected
vs
35ProjectedNeutral site
Kentucky Wildcats
Record 7–1 · #27 in ratings
Neutral site
LSU Tigers
Record 6–2 · #3 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 81 vs 99
- Projected
- LSU favored
- Differential
- 10.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- LSU by 10.2
- Projected total
- 59.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Kentucky wins by 21+
- 2.0%
- LSU wins by 21+
- 24.7%
- Median score
- 24–34
- Model expectation
- 24.3–34.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kentucky wins, bars on the left are LSU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- LSU 37, Kentucky 2057 games
- LSU 34, Kentucky 2756 games
- LSU 30, Kentucky 1756 games
- LSU 37, Kentucky 2751 games
- LSU 37, Kentucky 1750 games
- LSU 30, Kentucky 2746 games
Where the edges are
Kentucky offense vs LSU defenseOffense +5.9Defense +7.4Edge LSU: its defense is 1.5 points better than Kentucky's offense.
LSU offense vs Kentucky defenseOffense +10.1Defense +1.4Edge LSU: its offense is 8.7 points better than Kentucky's defense.
| Stat | Kentucky | LSU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.28 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.05 | -0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.0% | 51.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 32.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.9 | 40.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 16.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.