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Kentucky vs Oklahoma prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UK 56% win44% OU
24Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Kentucky Wildcats
Record 7–1 · #27 in ratings
Neutral site
Oklahoma Sooners
Record 4–3 · #39 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 81 vs 72
- Projected
- UK favored
- Differential
- 2.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kentucky by 2.2
- Projected total
- 46.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.6%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- Kentucky wins by 21+
- 10.9%
- Oklahoma wins by 21+
- 6.3%
- Median score
- 24–21
- Model expectation
- 24–21.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kentucky wins, bars on the left are Oklahoma wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kentucky 20, Oklahoma 1780 games
- Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 2073 games
- Kentucky 24, Oklahoma 1769 games
- Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 1767 games
- Kentucky 24, Oklahoma 2065 games
- Kentucky 27, Oklahoma 1760 games
Where the edges are
Kentucky offense vs Oklahoma defenseOffense +5.9Defense +7.7Edge Oklahoma: its defense is 1.8 points better than Kentucky's offense.
Oklahoma offense vs Kentucky defenseOffense -2.9Defense +1.4Edge Kentucky: its defense is 4.3 points better than Oklahoma's offense.
| Stat | Kentucky | Oklahoma | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | -0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.05 | -0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.0% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 33.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.9 | 21.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 17.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.