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Kentucky vs South Alabama prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UK 76% win24% USA
40Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Kentucky Wildcats
Record 7–1 · #27 in ratings
Neutral site
South Alabama Jaguars
Record 4–3 · #88 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 81 vs 36
- Projected
- UK favored
- Differential
- 10.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kentucky by 10.8
- Projected total
- 69.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.4%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Kentucky wins by 21+
- 27.3%
- South Alabama wins by 21+
- 2.5%
- Median score
- 40–29
- Model expectation
- 40–29.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kentucky wins, bars on the left are South Alabama wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kentucky 37, South Alabama 2751 games
- Kentucky 44, South Alabama 2745 games
- Kentucky 37, South Alabama 3042 games
- Kentucky 41, South Alabama 2040 games
- Kentucky 34, South Alabama 2738 games
- Kentucky 37, South Alabama 2035 games
Where the edges are
Kentucky offense vs South Alabama defenseOffense +5.9Defense -8.3Edge Kentucky: its offense is 14.2 points better than South Alabama's defense.
South Alabama offense vs Kentucky defenseOffense +4.7Defense +1.4Edge South Alabama: its offense is 3.3 points better than Kentucky's defense.
| Stat | Kentucky | South Alabama | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.05 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.0% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 51.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.9 | 35.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.