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Kentucky vs South Carolina prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UK 54% win46% SC
31Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Kentucky Wildcats
Record 7–1 · #27 in ratings
Neutral site
South Carolina Gamecocks
Record 4–3 · #34 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 81 vs 76
- Projected
- UK favored
- Differential
- 1.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kentucky by 1.6
- Projected total
- 61.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Kentucky wins by 21+
- 11.6%
- South Carolina wins by 21+
- 8.0%
- Median score
- 31–30
- Model expectation
- 31–29.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kentucky wins, bars on the left are South Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kentucky 34, South Carolina 3051 games
- Kentucky 34, South Carolina 2750 games
- South Carolina 27, Kentucky 2346 games
- Kentucky 34, South Carolina 3142 games
- Kentucky 27, South Carolina 2041 games
- South Carolina 30, Kentucky 2738 games
Where the edges are
Kentucky offense vs South Carolina defenseOffense +5.9Defense +0.7Edge Kentucky: its offense is 5.2 points better than South Carolina's defense.
South Carolina offense vs Kentucky defenseOffense +5.1Defense +1.4Edge South Carolina: its offense is 3.7 points better than Kentucky's defense.
| Stat | Kentucky | South Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.05 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.0% | 44.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 42.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.9 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.