Loading the matchup…
Kentucky vs Texas A&M prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UK 55% win45% TA&M
26Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Kentucky Wildcats
Record 7–1 · #27 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas A&M Aggies
Record 4–4 · #38 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 81 vs 73
- Projected
- UK favored
- Differential
- 1.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kentucky by 1.9
- Projected total
- 49.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.9%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- Kentucky wins by 21+
- 10.7%
- Texas A&M wins by 21+
- 6.6%
- Median score
- 24–23
- Model expectation
- 25.4–23.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kentucky wins, bars on the left are Texas A&M wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas A&M 24, Kentucky 2067 games
- Kentucky 24, Texas A&M 2067 games
- Kentucky 27, Texas A&M 2462 games
- Kentucky 27, Texas A&M 2060 games
- Kentucky 27, Texas A&M 1757 games
- Kentucky 27, Texas A&M 2356 games
Where the edges are
Kentucky offense vs Texas A&M defenseOffense +5.9Defense +6.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
Texas A&M offense vs Kentucky defenseOffense -1.1Defense +1.4Edge Kentucky: its defense is 2.5 points better than Texas A&M's offense.
| Stat | Kentucky | Texas A&M | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.05 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.0% | 42.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 39.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.9 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.