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Liberty vs New Mexico State prediction
Kickoff Sat 4:00 PM CT, at New Mexico State
LIB 75% win25% NMSU
30Projected20If NMSU upsets
vs
20Projected30If NMSU upsetsAway
Liberty Flames
Record 6–1 · #26 in ratings
Home
New Mexico State Aggies
Record 3–4 · #100 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (54)
Starts at 54, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | LIB | NMSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 86 | 51 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%New Mexico State wins at home
At a neutral site20% ▼
New Mexico State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Liberty: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games New Mexico State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- LIB 20, NMSU 1062 games
- LIB 30, NMSU 1058 games
- LIB 27, NMSU 1758 games
- LIB 27, NMSU 1057 games
- LIB 27, NMSU 1451 games
- Power index
- 82 vs 28
- Projected
- LIB favored
- Differential
- 9.9 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at New Mexico State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 4:00 PM CT, at New Mexico State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Liberty by 9.9
- Projected total
- 49.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Liberty wins by 21+
- 23.8%
- New Mexico State wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Median score
- 30–20
- Model expectation
- 29.4–19.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Liberty wins, bars on the left are New Mexico State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Liberty offense vs New Mexico State defenseOffense +1.7Defense -3.4Edge Liberty: its offense is 5.2 points better than New Mexico State's defense.
New Mexico State offense vs Liberty defenseOffense -1.8Defense +5.7Edge Liberty: its defense is 7.6 points better than New Mexico State's offense.
| Stat | Liberty | New Mexico State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.20 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.7% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.7% | 38.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 14.0 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.