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Liberty vs Sam Houston prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
LIB 90% win10% SHSU
29Projected
vs
12ProjectedNeutral site
Liberty Flames
Record 6–1 · #26 in ratings
Neutral site
Sam Houston Bearkats
Record 1–6 · #126 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 82 vs 9
- Projected
- LIB favored
- Differential
- 17.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Liberty by 17.9
- Projected total
- 40.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 20.9%
- Went to overtime
- 1.7%
- Liberty wins by 21+
- 41.6%
- Sam Houston wins by 21+
- 0.2%
- Median score
- 29–10
- Model expectation
- 29.4–11.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Liberty wins, bars on the left are Sam Houston wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Liberty 34, Sam Houston 7105 games
- Liberty 27, Sam Houston 1097 games
- Liberty 27, Sam Houston 797 games
- Liberty 20, Sam Houston 791 games
- Liberty 27, Sam Houston 086 games
- Liberty 31, Sam Houston 1083 games
Where the edges are
Liberty offense vs Sam Houston defenseOffense +1.7Defense -1.9Edge Liberty: its offense is 3.6 points better than Sam Houston's defense.
Sam Houston offense vs Liberty defenseOffense -8.7Defense +5.7Edge Liberty: its defense is 14.4 points better than Sam Houston's offense.
| Stat | Liberty | Sam Houston | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.20 | -0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.7% | 37.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.7% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 14.0 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.