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Louisiana Tech vs South Alabama prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:00 PM CT, at South Alabama
LT 53% win47% USA
32Projected
vs
31ProjectedAway
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Record 5–2 · #59 in ratings
Home
South Alabama Jaguars
Record 4–3 · #88 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 58 vs 36
- Projected
- LT favored
- Differential
- 1.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at South Alabama, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:00 PM CT, at South Alabama.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisiana Tech by 1.5
- Projected total
- 63.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Louisiana Tech wins by 21+
- 11.4%
- South Alabama wins by 21+
- 7.9%
- Median score
- 32–30
- Model expectation
- 32.2–30.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisiana Tech wins, bars on the left are South Alabama wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- South Alabama 34, Louisiana Tech 3056 games
- South Alabama 34, Louisiana Tech 2746 games
- Louisiana Tech 34, South Alabama 2742 games
- Louisiana Tech 37, South Alabama 3041 games
- South Alabama 34, Louisiana Tech 2338 games
- Louisiana Tech 31, South Alabama 2738 games
Where the edges are
Louisiana Tech offense vs South Alabama defenseOffense -0.4Defense -8.3Edge Louisiana Tech: its offense is 7.9 points better than South Alabama's defense.
South Alabama offense vs Louisiana Tech defenseOffense +4.7Defense +1.6Edge South Alabama: its offense is 3.1 points better than Louisiana Tech's defense.
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | South Alabama | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.17 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.5% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 51.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.3 | 35.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.