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Louisiana vs Louisiana Tech prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UL 48% win52% LT
24.6Projected
vs
25.1ProjectedNeutral site
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Record 5–3 · #64 in ratings
Neutral site
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Record 5–2 · #59 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 54 vs 58
- Projected
- LT favored
- Differential
- 0.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisiana Tech by 0.5
- Projected total
- 49.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Louisiana wins by 21+
- 8.3%
- Louisiana Tech wins by 21+
- 8.8%
- Median score
- 24–24
- Model expectation
- 24.2–24.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisiana wins, bars on the left are Louisiana Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Louisiana Tech 27, Louisiana 2063 games
- Louisiana Tech 24, Louisiana 2059 games
- Louisiana Tech 20, Louisiana 1759 games
- Louisiana Tech 27, Louisiana 1759 games
- Louisiana 24, Louisiana Tech 1757 games
- Louisiana 27, Louisiana Tech 1755 games
Where the edges are
Louisiana offense vs Louisiana Tech defenseOffense +0.1Defense +1.6Edge Louisiana Tech: its defense is 1.6 points better than Louisiana's offense.
Louisiana Tech offense vs Louisiana defenseOffense -0.4Defense +0.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Louisiana | Louisiana Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.17 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.03 | 0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 43.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 36.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.1 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 21.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.