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Louisiana vs South Alabama prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Louisiana
UL 68% win32% USA
36Projected27If USA upsets
vs
29Projected38If USA upsetsHome
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Record 5–3 · #64 in ratings
Away
South Alabama Jaguars
Record 4–3 · #88 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Starts at 50, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UL | USA | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 43 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog32%South Alabama wins on the road
If South Alabama plays at home47% ▲
South Alabama: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Ohio 41–36)
Louisiana: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Southern Miss 31–35)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games South Alabama won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UL 37, USA 2746 games
- UL 34, USA 3040 games
- UL 41, USA 3438 games
- UL 41, USA 2738 games
- UL 30, USA 2338 games
- Power index
- 54 vs 36
- Projected
- UL favored
- Differential
- 7.4 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Louisiana, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Louisiana.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisiana by 7.4
- Projected total
- 64.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Louisiana wins by 21+
- 20.7%
- South Alabama wins by 21+
- 4.2%
- Median score
- 36–28
- Model expectation
- 35.6–28.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisiana wins, bars on the left are South Alabama wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Louisiana offense vs South Alabama defenseOffense +0.1Defense -8.3Edge Louisiana: its offense is 8.4 points better than South Alabama's defense.
South Alabama offense vs Louisiana defenseOffense +4.7Defense +0.6Edge South Alabama: its offense is 4.2 points better than Louisiana's defense.
| Stat | Louisiana | South Alabama | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.03 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.4% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 51.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.1 | 35.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
