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Louisiana vs Troy prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UL 75% win25% TROY
30Projected
vs
20ProjectedNeutral site
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Record 5–3 · #64 in ratings
Neutral site
Troy Trojans
Record 3–4 · #124 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 54 vs 10
- Projected
- UL favored
- Differential
- 9.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisiana by 9.9
- Projected total
- 50.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Louisiana wins by 21+
- 23.6%
- Troy wins by 21+
- 2.3%
- Median score
- 30–20
- Model expectation
- 29.9–20.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisiana wins, bars on the left are Troy wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Louisiana 34, Troy 1775 games
- Louisiana 27, Troy 1763 games
- Louisiana 30, Troy 1757 games
- Louisiana 27, Troy 1056 games
- Louisiana 23, Troy 1753 games
- Troy 24, Louisiana 2051 games
Where the edges are
Louisiana offense vs Troy defenseOffense +0.1Defense -4.0Edge Louisiana: its offense is 4.1 points better than Troy's defense.
Troy offense vs Louisiana defenseOffense -5.0Defense +0.6Edge Louisiana: its defense is 5.6 points better than Troy's offense.
| Stat | Louisiana | Troy | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.03 | 0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 40.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 40.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.1 | 22.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 24.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.