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Louisiana vs USC prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UL 37% win64% USC
26Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Record 5–3 · #64 in ratings
Neutral site
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 54 vs 77
- Projected
- USC favored
- Differential
- 5.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- USC by 5.3
- Projected total
- 57.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Louisiana wins by 21+
- 4.7%
- USC wins by 21+
- 15.9%
- Median score
- 26–31
- Model expectation
- 26.1–31.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisiana wins, bars on the left are USC wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Louisiana 24, USC 2050 games
- USC 34, Louisiana 2749 games
- USC 34, Louisiana 1747 games
- USC 30, Louisiana 2447 games
- USC 34, Louisiana 2445 games
- Louisiana 31, USC 2744 games
Where the edges are
Louisiana offense vs USC defenseOffense +0.1Defense -0.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
USC offense vs Louisiana defenseOffense +6.1Defense +0.6Edge USC: its offense is 5.5 points better than Louisiana's defense.
| Stat | Louisiana | USC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.03 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 51.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.1 | 32.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.