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Louisville vs North Carolina prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at North Carolina
LOU 52% win48% UNC
31Projected24If UNC upsets
vs
29Projected36If UNC upsetsAway
Louisville Cardinals
Record 4–3 · #29 in ratings
Home
North Carolina Tar Heels
Record 4–3 · #51 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Starts at 50, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | LOU | UNC | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 77 | 32 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up48%North Carolina wins at home
At a neutral site40% ▼
North Carolina: 3 wins over higher-rated teams (Duke 24–20, Pittsburgh 21–17 +1 more)
Louisville: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (NC State 28–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games North Carolina won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- LOU 34, UNC 2747 games
- LOU 34, UNC 3047 games
- UNC 31, LOU 2747 games
- UNC 30, LOU 2744 games
- UNC 34, LOU 2741 games
- Power index
- 80 vs 64
- Projected
- LOU favored
- Differential
- 1.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at North Carolina, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at North Carolina.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisville by 1.1
- Projected total
- 60.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Louisville wins by 21+
- 11.2%
- North Carolina wins by 21+
- 8.3%
- Median score
- 30–29
- Model expectation
- 30–29.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisville wins, bars on the left are North Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Louisville offense vs North Carolina defenseOffense +7.9Defense +2.1Edge Louisville: its offense is 5.8 points better than North Carolina's defense.
North Carolina offense vs Louisville defenseOffense +1.0Defense -0.8Edge North Carolina: its offense is 1.8 points better than Louisville's defense.
| Stat | Louisville | North Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.3% | 45.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 42.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.7 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 | 20.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
