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Louisville vs Ole Miss prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
LOU 39% win61% MISS
31Projected
vs
35ProjectedNeutral site
Louisville Cardinals
Record 4–3 · #29 in ratings
Neutral site
Ole Miss Rebels
Record 5–2 · #10 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 80 vs 93
- Projected
- MISS favored
- Differential
- 4.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ole Miss by 4.2
- Projected total
- 66.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Louisville wins by 21+
- 6.7%
- Ole Miss wins by 21+
- 15.6%
- Median score
- 31–35
- Model expectation
- 30.9–35.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisville wins, bars on the left are Ole Miss wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ole Miss 34, Louisville 2746 games
- Ole Miss 37, Louisville 2745 games
- Ole Miss 30, Louisville 2745 games
- Louisville 34, Ole Miss 2742 games
- Louisville 34, Ole Miss 3041 games
- Ole Miss 37, Louisville 3037 games
Where the edges are
Louisville offense vs Ole Miss defenseOffense +7.9Defense +2.7Edge Louisville: its offense is 5.2 points better than Ole Miss's defense.
Ole Miss offense vs Louisville defenseOffense +8.6Defense -0.8Edge Ole Miss: its offense is 9.5 points better than Louisville's defense.
| Stat | Louisville | Ole Miss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.26 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.3% | 48.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 43.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.7 | 36.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.