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Louisville vs Pittsburgh prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Louisville
LOU 65% win35% PITT
32Projected24If PITT upsets
vs
26Projected35If PITT upsetsHome
Louisville Cardinals
Record 4–3 · #29 in ratings
Away
Pittsburgh Panthers
Record 5–3 · #45 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | LOU | PITT | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 77 | 78 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog35%Pittsburgh wins on the road
If Pittsburgh plays at home51% ▲
Pittsburgh: 1 win over a higher-rated team (UCF 12–7)
Louisville: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (NC State 28–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Pittsburgh won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- LOU 27, PITT 1748 games
- LOU 24, PITT 2048 games
- LOU 34, PITT 2045 games
- PITT 30, LOU 2744 games
- LOU 34, PITT 2744 games
- Power index
- 80 vs 68
- Projected
- LOU favored
- Differential
- 6.0 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Louisville, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Louisville.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisville by 6.0
- Projected total
- 58.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Louisville wins by 21+
- 17.3%
- Pittsburgh wins by 21+
- 4.9%
- Median score
- 31–26
- Model expectation
- 31.8–25.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisville wins, bars on the left are Pittsburgh wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Louisville offense vs Pittsburgh defenseOffense +7.9Defense +3.4Edge Louisville: its offense is 4.5 points better than Pittsburgh's defense.
Pittsburgh offense vs Louisville defenseOffense +0.7Defense -0.8Edge Pittsburgh: its offense is 1.5 points better than Louisville's defense.
| Stat | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.3% | 43.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 35.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.7 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 | 20.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.