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Louisville vs SMU prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
LOU 55% win45% SMU
33Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Louisville Cardinals
Record 4–3 · #29 in ratings
Neutral site
SMU Mustangs
Record 6–1 · #37 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 80 vs 74
- Projected
- LOU favored
- Differential
- 1.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisville by 1.9
- Projected total
- 63.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Louisville wins by 21+
- 12.1%
- SMU wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Median score
- 33–30
- Model expectation
- 32.1–30.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisville wins, bars on the left are SMU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Louisville 30, SMU 2747 games
- Louisville 34, SMU 2745 games
- SMU 34, Louisville 2741 games
- Louisville 34, SMU 3041 games
- SMU 30, Louisville 2340 games
- Louisville 31, SMU 2740 games
Where the edges are
Louisville offense vs SMU defenseOffense +7.9Defense +1.6Edge Louisville: its offense is 6.3 points better than SMU's defense.
SMU offense vs Louisville defenseOffense +3.8Defense -0.8Edge SMU: its offense is 4.7 points better than Louisville's defense.
| Stat | Louisville | SMU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.3% | 49.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.7 | 36.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.