Loading the matchup…
Louisville vs Stanford prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:15 PM CT, at Louisville
LOU 89% win11% STAN
39Projected
vs
21ProjectedHome
Louisville Cardinals
Record 4–3 · #29 in ratings
Away
Stanford Cardinal
Record 4–4 · #121 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 80 vs 12
- Projected
- LOU favored
- Differential
- 18.7 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Louisville, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:15 PM CT, at Louisville.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisville by 18.7
- Projected total
- 59.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 21.1%
- Went to overtime
- 1.5%
- Louisville wins by 21+
- 45.6%
- Stanford wins by 21+
- 0.5%
- Median score
- 39–20
- Model expectation
- 39–20.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisville wins, bars on the left are Stanford wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Louisville 37, Stanford 1758 games
- Louisville 44, Stanford 1751 games
- Louisville 30, Stanford 1750 games
- Louisville 44, Stanford 2050 games
- Louisville 37, Stanford 2450 games
- Louisville 41, Stanford 2447 games
Where the edges are
Louisville offense vs Stanford defenseOffense +7.9Defense -3.9Edge Louisville: its offense is 11.8 points better than Stanford's defense.
Stanford offense vs Louisville defenseOffense -4.8Defense -0.8Edge Louisville: its defense is 3.9 points better than Stanford's offense.
| Stat | Louisville | Stanford | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.31 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.3% | 40.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 47.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.7 | 19.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 | 35.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.