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Louisville vs Wake Forest prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
LOU 40% win60% WAKE
27Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Louisville Cardinals
Record 4–3 · #29 in ratings
Neutral site
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record 6–1 · #11 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 80 vs 93
- Projected
- WAKE favored
- Differential
- 4.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wake Forest by 4.1
- Projected total
- 59.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Louisville wins by 21+
- 5.7%
- Wake Forest wins by 21+
- 14.4%
- Median score
- 27–31
- Model expectation
- 27.3–31.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Louisville wins, bars on the left are Wake Forest wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wake Forest 30, Louisville 2052 games
- Wake Forest 27, Louisville 2350 games
- Louisville 34, Wake Forest 3048 games
- Wake Forest 24, Louisville 2048 games
- Wake Forest 34, Louisville 2746 games
- Wake Forest 34, Louisville 2445 games
Where the edges are
Louisville offense vs Wake Forest defenseOffense +7.9Defense +6.4Edge Louisville: its offense is 1.5 points better than Wake Forest's defense.
Wake Forest offense vs Louisville defenseOffense +4.6Defense -0.8Edge Wake Forest: its offense is 5.5 points better than Louisville's defense.
| Stat | Louisville | Wake Forest | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.3% | 49.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 41.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.7 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4 | 19.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.