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LSU vs Texas A&M prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
LSU 82% win18% TA&M
30Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
LSU Tigers
Record 6–2 · #3 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas A&M Aggies
Record 4–4 · #38 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 99 vs 73
- Projected
- LSU favored
- Differential
- 12.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- LSU by 12.2
- Projected total
- 47.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.6%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- LSU wins by 21+
- 27.9%
- Texas A&M wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- Median score
- 30–17
- Model expectation
- 29.6–17.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are LSU wins, bars on the left are Texas A&M wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- LSU 27, Texas A&M 1776 games
- LSU 30, Texas A&M 1768 games
- LSU 27, Texas A&M 2466 games
- LSU 27, Texas A&M 2066 games
- LSU 27, Texas A&M 1065 games
- LSU 24, Texas A&M 1061 games
Where the edges are
LSU offense vs Texas A&M defenseOffense +10.1Defense +6.2Edge LSU: its offense is 3.8 points better than Texas A&M's defense.
Texas A&M offense vs LSU defenseOffense -1.1Defense +7.4Edge LSU: its defense is 8.5 points better than Texas A&M's offense.
| Stat | LSU | Texas A&M | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.28 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.05 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.9% | 42.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 32.9% | 39.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 40.1 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.