Loading the matchup…
Marshall vs Missouri State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MRSH 52% win48% MOST
29Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Marshall Thundering Herd
Record 4–3 · #125 in ratings
Neutral site
Missouri State Bears
Record 2–5 · #130 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 9 vs 6
- Projected
- MRSH favored
- Differential
- 0.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Marshall by 0.9
- Projected total
- 56.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Marshall wins by 21+
- 9.6%
- Missouri State wins by 21+
- 8.2%
- Median score
- 28–27
- Model expectation
- 28.4–27.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Marshall wins, bars on the left are Missouri State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Missouri State 27, Marshall 2061 games
- Marshall 31, Missouri State 2758 games
- Marshall 27, Missouri State 2052 games
- Missouri State 30, Marshall 2744 games
- Missouri State 27, Marshall 2443 games
- Marshall 30, Missouri State 2743 games
Where the edges are
Marshall offense vs Missouri State defenseOffense -6.0Defense -8.7Edge Marshall: its offense is 2.6 points better than Missouri State's defense.
Missouri State offense vs Marshall defenseOffense -2.7Defense -4.4Edge Missouri State: its offense is 1.6 points better than Marshall's defense.
| Stat | Marshall | Missouri State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.6% | 42.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 49.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.7 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.7 | 34.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.