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Marshall vs Old Dominion prediction
Kickoff Sat 12:00 PM CT, at Old Dominion
MRSH 44% win56% ODU
20Projected
vs
22ProjectedAway
Marshall Thundering Herd
Record 4–3 · #125 in ratings
Home
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 9 vs 7
- Projected
- ODU favored
- Differential
- 2.0 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Old Dominion, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 12:00 PM CT, at Old Dominion.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Old Dominion by 2.0
- Projected total
- 42.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Marshall wins by 21+
- 6.2%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 9.8%
- Median score
- 20–21
- Model expectation
- 19.9–22.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Marshall wins, bars on the left are Old Dominion wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Old Dominion 20, Marshall 1775 games
- Marshall 17, Old Dominion 1074 games
- Marshall 24, Old Dominion 1774 games
- Old Dominion 17, Marshall 1372 games
- Old Dominion 24, Marshall 1768 games
- Old Dominion 20, Marshall 1363 games
Where the edges are
Marshall offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense -6.0Defense -1.6Edge Old Dominion: its defense is 4.4 points better than Marshall's offense.
Old Dominion offense vs Marshall defenseOffense -9.5Defense -4.4Edge Marshall: its defense is 5.2 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
| Stat | Marshall | Old Dominion | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | -0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.6% | 30.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 39.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.7 | 15.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.7 | 26.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.