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Marshall vs UL Monroe prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at UL Monroe
MRSH 58% win42% ULM
27Projected20If ULM upsets
vs
24Projected31If ULM upsetsAway
Marshall Thundering Herd
Record 4–3 · #125 in ratings
Home
UL Monroe Warhawks
Record 1–6 · #136 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MRSH | ULM | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 57 | 46 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up42%UL Monroe wins at home
At a neutral site35% ▼
UL Monroe: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Troy 21–14)
Marshall: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games UL Monroe won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MRSH 24, ULM 2068 games
- MRSH 27, ULM 2057 games
- MRSH 27, ULM 1757 games
- ULM 24, MRSH 2055 games
- ULM 27, MRSH 2054 games
- Power index
- 9 vs 1
- Projected
- MRSH favored
- Differential
- 3.0 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UL Monroe, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at UL Monroe.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Marshall by 3.0
- Projected total
- 51.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Marshall wins by 21+
- 12.4%
- UL Monroe wins by 21+
- 6.2%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 26.9–24
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Marshall wins, bars on the left are UL Monroe wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Marshall offense vs UL Monroe defenseOffense -6.0Defense -8.6Edge Marshall: its offense is 2.6 points better than UL Monroe's defense.
UL Monroe offense vs Marshall defenseOffense -7.7Defense -4.4Edge Marshall: its defense is 3.3 points better than UL Monroe's offense.
| Stat | Marshall | UL Monroe | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | -0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.22 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.6% | 40.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 45.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.7 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.7 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.