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Maryland vs Nebraska prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MD 16% win84% NEB
20Projected
vs
35ProjectedNeutral site
Maryland Terrapins
Record 2–5 · #97 in ratings
Neutral site
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 30 vs 91
- Projected
- NEB favored
- Differential
- 14.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nebraska by 14.9
- Projected total
- 55.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.0%
- Maryland wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 35.1%
- Median score
- 20–34
- Model expectation
- 19.8–34.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Maryland wins, bars on the left are Nebraska wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nebraska 30, Maryland 1758 games
- Nebraska 30, Maryland 1057 games
- Nebraska 37, Maryland 1757 games
- Nebraska 27, Maryland 2451 games
- Nebraska 34, Maryland 1751 games
- Nebraska 27, Maryland 2049 games
Where the edges are
Maryland offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense -0.9Defense +5.0Edge Nebraska: its defense is 6.0 points better than Maryland's offense.
Nebraska offense vs Maryland defenseOffense +5.5Defense -3.4Edge Nebraska: its offense is 8.9 points better than Maryland's defense.
| Stat | Maryland | Nebraska | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 44.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 33.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3 | 15.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.