Loading the matchup…
Maryland vs Ohio State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MD 7% win93% OSU
16Projected
vs
37ProjectedNeutral site
Maryland Terrapins
Record 2–5 · #97 in ratings
Neutral site
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 6–1 · #5 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 30 vs 97
- Projected
- OSU favored
- Differential
- 20.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio State by 20.5
- Projected total
- 52.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 17.5%
- Went to overtime
- 1.2%
- Maryland wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Ohio State wins by 21+
- 50.4%
- Median score
- 16–37
- Model expectation
- 16.2–36.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Maryland wins, bars on the left are Ohio State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ohio State 34, Maryland 1072 games
- Ohio State 41, Maryland 1768 games
- Ohio State 37, Maryland 1067 games
- Ohio State 37, Maryland 1766 games
- Ohio State 40, Maryland 1062 games
- Ohio State 30, Maryland 1761 games
Where the edges are
Maryland offense vs Ohio State defenseOffense -0.9Defense +8.7Edge Ohio State: its defense is 9.6 points better than Maryland's offense.
Ohio State offense vs Maryland defenseOffense +7.3Defense -3.4Edge Ohio State: its offense is 10.7 points better than Maryland's defense.
| Stat | Maryland | Ohio State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.27 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | -0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 50.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 35.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 39.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.