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Maryland vs Purdue prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Purdue
MD 31% win69% PUR
29Projected38If MD upsets
vs
36Projected27If MD upsetsAway
Maryland Terrapins
Record 2–5 · #97 in ratings
Home
Purdue Boilermakers
Record 3–4 · #68 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MD | PUR | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 64 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog31%Maryland wins on the road
If Maryland plays at home47% ▲
Maryland: 1 win over a higher-rated team (UConn 38–14)
Purdue: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Washington 26–38)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Maryland won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- PUR 34, MD 2755 games
- PUR 37, MD 2750 games
- PUR 30, MD 2748 games
- PUR 37, MD 2041 games
- PUR 37, MD 3041 games
- Power index
- 30 vs 51
- Projected
- PUR favored
- Differential
- 7.6 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Purdue, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Purdue.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Purdue by 7.6
- Projected total
- 64.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.7%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Maryland wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Purdue wins by 21+
- 20.3%
- Median score
- 27–36
- Model expectation
- 28.2–35.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Maryland wins, bars on the left are Purdue wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Maryland offense vs Purdue defenseOffense -0.9Defense -4.8Edge Maryland: its offense is 3.9 points better than Purdue's defense.
Purdue offense vs Maryland defenseOffense +5.2Defense -3.4Edge Purdue: its offense is 8.6 points better than Maryland's defense.
| Stat | Maryland | Purdue | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 45.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 31.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.