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Maryland vs UConn prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MD 36% win64% CONN
27Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Maryland Terrapins
Record 2–5 · #97 in ratings
Neutral site
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 30 vs 56
- Projected
- CONN favored
- Differential
- 5.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UConn by 5.3
- Projected total
- 58.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Maryland wins by 21+
- 4.5%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 15.9%
- Median score
- 27–31
- Model expectation
- 26.5–31.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Maryland wins, bars on the left are UConn wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UConn 34, Maryland 2750 games
- UConn 34, Maryland 1747 games
- UConn 27, Maryland 2047 games
- UConn 37, Maryland 2044 games
- UConn 34, Maryland 3041 games
- UConn 30, Maryland 2741 games
Where the edges are
Maryland offense vs UConn defenseOffense -0.9Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
UConn offense vs Maryland defenseOffense +2.4Defense -3.4Edge UConn: its offense is 5.8 points better than Maryland's defense.
| Stat | Maryland | UConn | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.4% | 43.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3 | 23.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.