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Massachusetts vs Sacramento State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MASS 85% win15% SAC
30Projected
vs
15ProjectedNeutral site
Massachusetts Minutemen
Record 4–4 · #101 in ratings
Neutral site
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 27 vs 1
- Projected
- MASS favored
- Differential
- 14.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Massachusetts by 14.3
- Projected total
- 44.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.7%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Massachusetts wins by 21+
- 32.6%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 0.7%
- Median score
- 30–14
- Model expectation
- 29.4–15.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Massachusetts wins, bars on the left are Sacramento State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Massachusetts 27, Sacramento State 10106 games
- Massachusetts 34, Sacramento State 1077 games
- Massachusetts 27, Sacramento State 777 games
- Massachusetts 20, Sacramento State 1075 games
- Massachusetts 27, Sacramento State 1769 games
- Massachusetts 24, Sacramento State 1768 games
Where the edges are
Massachusetts offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense -4.2Defense -7.8Edge Massachusetts: its offense is 3.6 points better than Sacramento State's defense.
Sacramento State offense vs Massachusetts defenseOffense -12.0Defense -1.4Edge Massachusetts: its defense is 10.6 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
| Stat | Massachusetts | Sacramento State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | -0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.20 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.2% | 36.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.5 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.