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Memphis vs Navy prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Navy
MEM 56% win44% NAVY
32Projected25If NAVY upsets
vs
29Projected37If NAVY upsetsAway
Memphis Tigers
Record 6–2 · #52 in ratings
Home
Navy Midshipmen
Record 2–5 · #84 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Starts at 50, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MEM | NAVY | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 48 | 39 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up44%Navy wins at home
At a neutral site36% ▼
Navy: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Tulsa 34–26)
Memphis: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Tulane 17–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Navy won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MEM 30, NAVY 2751 games
- MEM 27, NAVY 2049 games
- MEM 34, NAVY 2744 games
- NAVY 34, MEM 2744 games
- NAVY 34, MEM 3044 games
- Power index
- 63 vs 39
- Projected
- MEM favored
- Differential
- 2.4 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Navy, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Navy.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Memphis by 2.4
- Projected total
- 61.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Memphis wins by 21+
- 12.8%
- Navy wins by 21+
- 8.0%
- Median score
- 31–29
- Model expectation
- 31.5–29.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Memphis wins, bars on the left are Navy wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Memphis offense vs Navy defenseOffense +4.7Defense -2.6Edge Memphis: its offense is 7.3 points better than Navy's defense.
Navy offense vs Memphis defenseOffense +0.1Defense -1.6Edge Navy: its offense is 1.8 points better than Memphis's defense.
| Stat | Memphis | Navy | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.8% | 47.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.1 | 29.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8 | 29.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.