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Memphis vs South Florida prediction
Kickoff Thu 7:00 PM CT, at South Florida
MEM 45% win55% USF
25Projected32If MEM upsets
vs
27Projected20If MEM upsetsAway
Memphis Tigers
Record 6–2 · #52 in ratings
Home
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MEM | USF | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.5 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 48 | 39 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up45%Memphis wins on the road
If Memphis plays at home61% ▲
Memphis: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
South Florida: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Temple 13–17)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Memphis won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- USF 24, MEM 2063 games
- USF 31, MEM 2762 games
- MEM 24, USF 2057 games
- MEM 20, USF 1756 games
- MEM 27, USF 2055 games
- Power index
- 63 vs 60
- Projected
- USF favored
- Differential
- 1.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at South Florida, luck set to normal. The real game is Thu 7:00 PM CT, at South Florida.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Florida by 1.7
- Projected total
- 52.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Memphis wins by 21+
- 6.8%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 10.4%
- Median score
- 24–27
- Model expectation
- 24.7–26.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Memphis wins, bars on the left are South Florida wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Memphis offense vs South Florida defenseOffense +4.7Defense +4.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
South Florida offense vs Memphis defenseOffense -2.2Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Memphis | South Florida | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.8% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3% | 42.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.1 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.