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Memphis vs Temple prediction
Kickoff Thu 11:00 PM CT, at Memphis
MEM 79% win21% TEM
36Projected26If TEM upsets
vs
24Projected34If TEM upsetsHome
Memphis Tigers
Record 6–2 · #52 in ratings
Away
Temple Owls
Record 2–5 · #102 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (48)
Starts at 48, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MEM | TEM | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.5 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 48 | 37 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert21%Temple wins on the road
If Temple plays at home35% ▲
Temple: 1 win over a higher-rated team (South Florida 17–13)
Memphis: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Tulane 17–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Temple won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MEM 37, TEM 1758 games
- MEM 34, TEM 1753 games
- MEM 37, TEM 2752 games
- MEM 37, TEM 2049 games
- MEM 34, TEM 2747 games
- Power index
- 63 vs 26
- Projected
- MEM favored
- Differential
- 11.9 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Memphis, luck set to normal. The real game is Thu 11:00 PM CT, at Memphis.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Memphis by 11.9
- Projected total
- 59.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Memphis wins by 21+
- 28.3%
- Temple wins by 21+
- 1.6%
- Median score
- 36–23
- Model expectation
- 35.7–23.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Memphis wins, bars on the left are Temple wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Memphis offense vs Temple defenseOffense +4.7Defense -3.7Edge Memphis: its offense is 8.4 points better than Temple's defense.
Temple offense vs Memphis defenseOffense -2.3Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Memphis | Temple | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.21 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.8% | 43.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3% | 46.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.1 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8 | 28.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.