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Memphis vs Tulane prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MEM 67% win33% TULN
29Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Memphis Tigers
Record 6–2 · #52 in ratings
Neutral site
Tulane Green Wave
Record 3–4 · #89 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 63 vs 36
- Projected
- MEM favored
- Differential
- 6.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Memphis by 6.6
- Projected total
- 50.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Memphis wins by 21+
- 18.2%
- Tulane wins by 21+
- 3.7%
- Median score
- 28–21
- Model expectation
- 28.2–21.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Memphis wins, bars on the left are Tulane wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Memphis 20, Tulane 1760 games
- Memphis 34, Tulane 1758 games
- Memphis 27, Tulane 1757 games
- Memphis 24, Tulane 1757 games
- Memphis 30, Tulane 1755 games
- Memphis 23, Tulane 1755 games
Where the edges are
Memphis offense vs Tulane defenseOffense +4.7Defense +2.2Edge Memphis: its offense is 2.5 points better than Tulane's defense.
Tulane offense vs Memphis defenseOffense -5.9Defense -1.6Edge Memphis: its defense is 4.3 points better than Tulane's offense.
| Stat | Memphis | Tulane | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.8% | 32.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.1 | 20.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.