Loading the matchup…
Memphis vs UNLV prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MEM 60% win40% UNLV
29Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Memphis Tigers
Record 6–2 · #52 in ratings
Neutral site
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 63 vs 44
- Projected
- MEM favored
- Differential
- 3.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Memphis by 3.8
- Projected total
- 53.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Memphis wins by 21+
- 14.1%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 5.8%
- Median score
- 28–24
- Model expectation
- 28.2–24.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Memphis wins, bars on the left are UNLV wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Memphis 27, UNLV 2056 games
- Memphis 27, UNLV 2452 games
- UNLV 24, Memphis 2052 games
- Memphis 27, UNLV 2351 games
- Memphis 24, UNLV 2050 games
- Memphis 31, UNLV 2449 games
Where the edges are
Memphis offense vs UNLV defenseOffense +4.7Defense +2.3Edge Memphis: its offense is 2.4 points better than UNLV's defense.
UNLV offense vs Memphis defenseOffense -3.1Defense -1.6Edge Memphis: its defense is 1.4 points better than UNLV's offense.
| Stat | Memphis | UNLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.8% | 38.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3% | 40.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.1 | 24.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.