Loading the matchup…
Miami (OH) vs Buffalo prediction
Kickoff Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Miami (OH)
M-OH 68% win32% BUF
29Projected21If BUF upsets
vs
22Projected31If BUF upsetsHome
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Record 5–3 · #95 in ratings
Away
Buffalo Bulls
Record 5–3 · #122 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (46)
Starts at 46, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | M-OH | BUF | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 58 | 47 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog32%Buffalo wins on the road
If Buffalo plays at home46% ▲
Buffalo: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Massachusetts 25–18, Toledo 23–8)
Miami (OH): 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Bowling Green 20–24)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Buffalo won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- M-OH 27, BUF 2071 games
- M-OH 24, BUF 2070 games
- M-OH 27, BUF 1767 games
- M-OH 34, BUF 1765 games
- M-OH 24, BUF 1755 games
- Power index
- 31 vs 12
- Projected
- M-OH favored
- Differential
- 7.2 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Miami (OH), luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Miami (OH).
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Miami (OH) by 7.2
- Projected total
- 51.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Miami (OH) wins by 21+
- 18.4%
- Buffalo wins by 21+
- 3.2%
- Median score
- 29–21
- Model expectation
- 29.1–21.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Miami (OH) wins, bars on the left are Buffalo wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Miami (OH) offense vs Buffalo defenseOffense -2.0Defense -3.7Edge Miami (OH): its offense is 1.8 points better than Buffalo's defense.
Buffalo offense vs Miami (OH) defenseOffense -4.9Defense -2.3Edge Miami (OH): its defense is 2.6 points better than Buffalo's offense.
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Buffalo | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.09 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.0% | 35.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.9% | 39.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.0 | 22.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
