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Miami (OH) vs UConn prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
M-OH 36% win64% CONN
26Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Record 5–3 · #95 in ratings
Neutral site
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 31 vs 56
- Projected
- CONN favored
- Differential
- 5.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UConn by 5.3
- Projected total
- 56.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Miami (OH) wins by 21+
- 4.9%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 15.8%
- Median score
- 24–30
- Model expectation
- 25.4–30.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Miami (OH) wins, bars on the left are UConn wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UConn 27, Miami (OH) 2449 games
- UConn 24, Miami (OH) 2048 games
- UConn 27, Miami (OH) 2046 games
- Miami (OH) 27, UConn 2345 games
- Miami (OH) 27, UConn 2045 games
- UConn 27, Miami (OH) 1744 games
Where the edges are
Miami (OH) offense vs UConn defenseOffense -2.0Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
UConn offense vs Miami (OH) defenseOffense +2.4Defense -2.3Edge UConn: its offense is 4.7 points better than Miami (OH)'s defense.
| Stat | Miami (OH) | UConn | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.0% | 43.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.9% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.0 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 23.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.