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Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan prediction
Kickoff Mon 11:00 PM CT, at Western Michigan
M-OH 29% win71% WMU
21Projected30If M-OH upsets
vs
29Projected21If M-OH upsetsAway
Miami (OH) RedHawks
Record 5–3 · #95 in ratings
Home
Western Michigan Broncos
Record 5–3 · #66 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (41)
Starts at 41, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | M-OH | WMU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 58 | 47 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog29%Miami (OH) wins on the road
If Miami (OH) plays at home45% ▲
Miami (OH): 1 win over a higher-rated team (UConn 24–21)
Western Michigan: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Miami (OH) won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- WMU 34, M-OH 1775 games
- WMU 24, M-OH 2071 games
- WMU 27, M-OH 1766 games
- WMU 27, M-OH 2066 games
- WMU 23, M-OH 1758 games
- Power index
- 31 vs 53
- Projected
- WMU favored
- Differential
- 7.8 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Western Michigan, luck set to normal. The real game is Mon 11:00 PM CT, at Western Michigan.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Michigan by 7.8
- Projected total
- 50.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Miami (OH) wins by 21+
- 2.3%
- Western Michigan wins by 21+
- 18.3%
- Median score
- 20–29
- Model expectation
- 21.1–28.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Miami (OH) wins, bars on the left are Western Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Miami (OH) offense vs Western Michigan defenseOffense -2.0Defense +1.2Edge Western Michigan: its defense is 3.2 points better than Miami (OH)'s offense.
Western Michigan offense vs Miami (OH) defenseOffense -0.7Defense -2.3Edge Western Michigan: its offense is 1.6 points better than Miami (OH)'s defense.
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Western Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.0% | 42.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.9% | 43.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.0 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
