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Miami vs Notre Dame prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Notre Dame
MIA 40% win60% ND
27Projected
vs
30ProjectedAway
Miami Hurricanes
Record 7–0 · #2 in ratings
Home
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 99 vs 100
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 3.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Notre Dame, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Notre Dame.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 3.5
- Projected total
- 57.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Miami wins by 21+
- 5.2%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 12.2%
- Median score
- 27–30
- Model expectation
- 26.7–30.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Miami wins, bars on the left are Notre Dame wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Notre Dame 27, Miami 2057 games
- Notre Dame 30, Miami 2349 games
- Miami 27, Notre Dame 2349 games
- Notre Dame 31, Miami 2748 games
- Notre Dame 27, Miami 2348 games
- Notre Dame 34, Miami 2748 games
Where the edges are
Miami offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense +11.8Defense +9.4Edge Miami: its offense is 2.4 points better than Notre Dame's defense.
Notre Dame offense vs Miami defenseOffense +8.4Defense +5.6Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 2.8 points better than Miami's defense.
| Stat | Miami | Notre Dame | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.45 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | -0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 53.0% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.9% | 34.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 49.0 | 41.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.