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Miami vs Pittsburgh prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MIA 82% win18% PITT
34Projected
vs
21ProjectedNeutral site
Miami Hurricanes
Record 7–0 · #2 in ratings
Neutral site
Pittsburgh Panthers
Record 5–3 · #45 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 99 vs 68
- Projected
- MIA favored
- Differential
- 13.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Miami by 13.4
- Projected total
- 55.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 29.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.4%
- Miami wins by 21+
- 31.3%
- Pittsburgh wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- Median score
- 34–20
- Model expectation
- 34.2–20.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Miami wins, bars on the left are Pittsburgh wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Miami 30, Pittsburgh 1763 games
- Miami 27, Pittsburgh 1762 games
- Miami 34, Pittsburgh 1761 games
- Miami 41, Pittsburgh 1754 games
- Miami 30, Pittsburgh 2450 games
- Miami 33, Pittsburgh 1749 games
Where the edges are
Miami offense vs Pittsburgh defenseOffense +11.8Defense +3.4Edge Miami: its offense is 8.4 points better than Pittsburgh's defense.
Pittsburgh offense vs Miami defenseOffense +0.7Defense +5.6Edge Miami: its defense is 4.9 points better than Pittsburgh's offense.
| Stat | Miami | Pittsburgh | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.45 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 53.0% | 43.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.9% | 35.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 49.0 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3 | 20.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.