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Michigan State vs Michigan prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Michigan
MSU 32% win68% MICH
17Projected24If MSU upsets
vs
23Projected15If MSU upsetsAway
Michigan State Spartans
Record 2–6 · #73 in ratings
Home
Michigan Wolverines
Record 4–3 · #50 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MSU | MICH | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 42 | 59 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog32%Michigan State wins on the road
If Michigan State plays at home49% ▲
Michigan State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Toledo 30–20)
Michigan: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Minnesota 14–20)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Michigan State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MICH 24, MSU 1099 games
- MICH 17, MSU 1091 games
- MICH 20, MSU 1790 games
- MICH 24, MSU 1788 games
- MICH 20, MSU 1085 games
- Power index
- 47 vs 64
- Projected
- MICH favored
- Differential
- 6.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Michigan, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Michigan.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Michigan by 6.2
- Projected total
- 39.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.9%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- Michigan State wins by 21+
- 2.8%
- Michigan wins by 21+
- 14.7%
- Median score
- 16–23
- Model expectation
- 16.4–22.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Michigan State wins, bars on the left are Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Michigan State offense vs Michigan defenseOffense -2.4Defense +5.5Edge Michigan: its defense is 7.8 points better than Michigan State's offense.
Michigan offense vs Michigan State defenseOffense -2.2Defense +2.3Edge Michigan State: its defense is 4.5 points better than Michigan's offense.
| Stat | Michigan State | Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.17 | -0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.8% | 40.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 34.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.9 | 20.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 15.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
