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Michigan State vs Nebraska prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MSU 23% win77% NEB
19Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Michigan State Spartans
Record 2–6 · #73 in ratings
Neutral site
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 91
- Projected
- NEB favored
- Differential
- 10.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nebraska by 10.6
- Projected total
- 47.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Michigan State wins by 21+
- 1.7%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 25.4%
- Median score
- 17–29
- Model expectation
- 18.4–29
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Michigan State wins, bars on the left are Nebraska wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nebraska 27, Michigan State 1774 games
- Nebraska 27, Michigan State 2066 games
- Nebraska 24, Michigan State 1761 games
- Nebraska 20, Michigan State 1761 games
- Nebraska 34, Michigan State 1061 games
- Nebraska 27, Michigan State 1359 games
Where the edges are
Michigan State offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense -2.4Defense +5.0Edge Nebraska: its defense is 7.4 points better than Michigan State's offense.
Nebraska offense vs Michigan State defenseOffense +5.5Defense +2.3Edge Nebraska: its offense is 3.3 points better than Michigan State's defense.
| Stat | Michigan State | Nebraska | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.17 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.8% | 44.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 33.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.9 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 15.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.