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Michigan State vs Notre Dame prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MSU 10% win90% ND
14Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Michigan State Spartans
Record 2–6 · #73 in ratings
Neutral site
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 100
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 17.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 17.6
- Projected total
- 46.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 21.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.0%
- Michigan State wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 41.9%
- Median score
- 14–31
- Model expectation
- 14–31.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Michigan State wins, bars on the left are Notre Dame wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 789 games
- Notre Dame 37, Michigan State 779 games
- Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 1078 games
- Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 775 games
- Notre Dame 30, Michigan State 1075 games
- Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 1071 games
Where the edges are
Michigan State offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense -2.4Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 11.7 points better than Michigan State's offense.
Notre Dame offense vs Michigan State defenseOffense +8.4Defense +2.3Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 6.1 points better than Michigan State's defense.
| Stat | Michigan State | Notre Dame | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.17 | -0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.8% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 34.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.9 | 41.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.