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Michigan State vs UCLA prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MSU 19% win81% UCLA
16Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Michigan State Spartans
Record 2–6 · #73 in ratings
Neutral site
UCLA Bruins
Record 7–0 · #8 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 47 vs 95
- Projected
- UCLA favored
- Differential
- 12.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCLA by 12.5
- Projected total
- 43.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Michigan State wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- UCLA wins by 21+
- 28.8%
- Median score
- 14–27
- Model expectation
- 15.4–27.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Michigan State wins, bars on the left are UCLA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UCLA 20, Michigan State 1094 games
- UCLA 27, Michigan State 1076 games
- UCLA 17, Michigan State 1074 games
- UCLA 27, Michigan State 1772 games
- UCLA 24, Michigan State 1068 games
- UCLA 20, Michigan State 1767 games
Where the edges are
Michigan State offense vs UCLA defenseOffense -2.4Defense +8.0Edge UCLA: its defense is 10.3 points better than Michigan State's offense.
UCLA offense vs Michigan State defenseOffense +4.5Defense +2.3Edge UCLA: its offense is 2.2 points better than Michigan State's defense.
| Stat | Michigan State | UCLA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.17 | -0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.8% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 33.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 19.9 | 34.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.