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Michigan vs Minnesota prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MICH 63% win37% MINN
22Projected
vs
17ProjectedNeutral site
Michigan Wolverines
Record 4–3 · #50 in ratings
Neutral site
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record 5–2 · #79 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 64 vs 43
- Projected
- MICH favored
- Differential
- 4.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Michigan by 4.4
- Projected total
- 38.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.3%
- Michigan wins by 21+
- 12.2%
- Minnesota wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Median score
- 21–17
- Model expectation
- 21.4–16.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Michigan wins, bars on the left are Minnesota wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Michigan 24, Minnesota 1795 games
- Michigan 17, Minnesota 1086 games
- Michigan 20, Minnesota 1785 games
- Michigan 13, Minnesota 1076 games
- Michigan 20, Minnesota 1075 games
- Michigan 17, Minnesota 775 games
Where the edges are
Michigan offense vs Minnesota defenseOffense -2.2Defense +2.1Edge Minnesota: its defense is 4.3 points better than Michigan's offense.
Minnesota offense vs Michigan defenseOffense -3.4Defense +5.5Edge Michigan: its defense is 8.9 points better than Minnesota's offense.
| Stat | Michigan | Minnesota | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.10 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.2% | 39.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 40.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.3 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.