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Michigan vs Oklahoma prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MICH 45% win55% OU
16Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
Michigan Wolverines
Record 4–3 · #50 in ratings
Neutral site
Oklahoma Sooners
Record 4–3 · #39 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 64 vs 72
- Projected
- OU favored
- Differential
- 1.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma by 1.7
- Projected total
- 33.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 48.6%
- Went to overtime
- 5.6%
- Michigan wins by 21+
- 5.0%
- Oklahoma wins by 21+
- 7.6%
- Median score
- 14–17
- Model expectation
- 15.9–17.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Michigan wins, bars on the left are Oklahoma wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Michigan 17, Oklahoma 10115 games
- Oklahoma 17, Michigan 10109 games
- Oklahoma 17, Michigan 14101 games
- Oklahoma 14, Michigan 1097 games
- Michigan 14, Oklahoma 1095 games
- Oklahoma 10, Michigan 793 games
Where the edges are
Michigan offense vs Oklahoma defenseOffense -2.2Defense +7.7Edge Oklahoma: its defense is 9.9 points better than Michigan's offense.
Oklahoma offense vs Michigan defenseOffense -2.9Defense +5.5Edge Michigan: its defense is 8.4 points better than Oklahoma's offense.
| Stat | Michigan | Oklahoma | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | -0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.10 | -0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.2% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 33.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.3 | 21.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7 | 17.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.