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Michigan vs UTEP prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MICH 92% win8% UTEP
31Projected
vs
12ProjectedNeutral site
Michigan Wolverines
Record 4–3 · #50 in ratings
Neutral site
UTEP Miners
Record 1–6 · #134 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 64 vs 3
- Projected
- MICH favored
- Differential
- 18.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Michigan by 18.9
- Projected total
- 42.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 19.1%
- Went to overtime
- 1.4%
- Michigan wins by 21+
- 44.7%
- UTEP wins by 21+
- 0.2%
- Median score
- 30–10
- Model expectation
- 30.8–11.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Michigan wins, bars on the left are UTEP wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Michigan 30, UTEP 7101 games
- Michigan 34, UTEP 796 games
- Michigan 27, UTEP 792 games
- Michigan 30, UTEP 1088 games
- Michigan 34, UTEP 1088 games
- Michigan 27, UTEP 1079 games
Where the edges are
Michigan offense vs UTEP defenseOffense -2.2Defense -7.3Edge Michigan: its offense is 5.0 points better than UTEP's defense.
UTEP offense vs Michigan defenseOffense -8.4Defense +5.5Edge Michigan: its defense is 13.9 points better than UTEP's offense.
| Stat | Michigan | UTEP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | -0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.10 | 0.28 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.2% | 33.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 48.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.3 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.