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Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State prediction
Kickoff Wed 6:00 PM CT, at Middle Tennessee
MTSU 64% win36% KENN
24Projected17If KENN upsets
vs
19Projected27If KENN upsetsHome
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Away
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MTSU | KENN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 53 | 71 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog36%Kennesaw State wins on the road
If Kennesaw State plays at home53% ▲
Kennesaw State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Middle Tennessee: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Marshall 26–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kennesaw State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MTSU 24, KENN 2083 games
- MTSU 20, KENN 1779 games
- KENN 24, MTSU 2073 games
- MTSU 24, KENN 1771 games
- MTSU 17, KENN 1069 games
- Power index
- 23 vs 16
- Projected
- MTSU favored
- Differential
- 5.0 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Middle Tennessee, luck set to normal. The real game is Wed 6:00 PM CT, at Middle Tennessee.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Middle Tennessee by 5.0
- Projected total
- 43.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 13.4%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Median score
- 24–19
- Model expectation
- 24–18.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Middle Tennessee wins, bars on the left are Kennesaw State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Middle Tennessee offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense -3.9Defense -0.6Edge Kennesaw State: its defense is 3.3 points better than Middle Tennessee's offense.
Kennesaw State offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense -7.7Defense -2.4Edge Middle Tennessee: its defense is 5.4 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Kennesaw State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.07 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.0% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 43.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.3 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.