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Middle Tennessee vs Nevada prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MTSU 42% win58% NEV
24Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Neutral site
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 23 vs 37
- Projected
- NEV favored
- Differential
- 2.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nevada by 2.9
- Projected total
- 50.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 6.5%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 12.5%
- Median score
- 23–27
- Model expectation
- 23.4–26.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Middle Tennessee wins, bars on the left are Nevada wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 1766 games
- Nevada 23, Middle Tennessee 2060 games
- Nevada 31, Middle Tennessee 2758 games
- Middle Tennessee 24, Nevada 2055 games
- Nevada 27, Middle Tennessee 1754 games
- Nevada 24, Middle Tennessee 2052 games
Where the edges are
Middle Tennessee offense vs Nevada defenseOffense -3.9Defense -1.5Edge Nevada: its defense is 2.4 points better than Middle Tennessee's offense.
Nevada offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense -1.9Defense -2.4Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Nevada | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.0% | 40.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 36.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.3 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6 | 22.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.