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Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston prediction
Kickoff Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Sam Houston
MTSU 54% win46% SHSU
23Projected16If SHSU upsets
vs
21Projected28If SHSU upsetsAway
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Home
Sam Houston Bearkats
Record 1–6 · #126 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (48)
Starts at 48, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MTSU | SHSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 53 | 75 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up46%Sam Houston wins at home
At a neutral site38% ▼
Sam Houston: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Middle Tennessee: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Marshall 26–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Sam Houston won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MTSU 24, SHSU 2078 games
- SHSU 24, MTSU 2077 games
- SHSU 17, MTSU 1372 games
- MTSU 17, SHSU 1371 games
- MTSU 24, SHSU 1769 games
- Power index
- 23 vs 9
- Projected
- MTSU favored
- Differential
- 1.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Sam Houston, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Sam Houston.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Middle Tennessee by 1.5
- Projected total
- 44.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 9.5%
- Sam Houston wins by 21+
- 6.5%
- Median score
- 23–20
- Model expectation
- 22.3–21
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Middle Tennessee wins, bars on the left are Sam Houston wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Middle Tennessee offense vs Sam Houston defenseOffense -3.9Defense -1.9Edge Sam Houston: its defense is 2.0 points better than Middle Tennessee's offense.
Sam Houston offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense -8.7Defense -2.4Edge Middle Tennessee: its defense is 6.3 points better than Sam Houston's offense.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Sam Houston | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.0% | 37.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.3 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
