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Minnesota vs Indiana prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Indiana
MINN 7% win93% IU
10Projected21If MINN upsets
vs
28Projected15If MINN upsetsAway
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record 5–2 · #79 in ratings
Home
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 7–1 · #6 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (42)
Starts at 42, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | MINN | IU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 53 | 33 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Long shot7%Minnesota wins on the road
If Minnesota plays at home16% ▲
Minnesota: 3 wins over higher-rated teams (Iowa 13–10, Michigan 20–14 +1 more)
Indiana: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Minnesota won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- IU 27, MINN 7158 games
- IU 27, MINN 0125 games
- IU 34, MINN 7119 games
- IU 20, MINN 7116 games
- IU 24, MINN 7116 games
- Power index
- 43 vs 96
- Projected
- IU favored
- Differential
- 18.8 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Indiana, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Indiana.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Indiana by 18.8
- Projected total
- 38.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 18.5%
- Went to overtime
- 1.4%
- Minnesota wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Indiana wins by 21+
- 44.3%
- Median score
- 7–27
- Model expectation
- 9.5–28.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Minnesota wins, bars on the left are Indiana wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Minnesota offense vs Indiana defenseOffense -3.4Defense +11.4Edge Indiana: its defense is 14.8 points better than Minnesota's offense.
Indiana offense vs Minnesota defenseOffense +3.2Defense +2.1Edge Indiana: its offense is 1.1 points better than Minnesota's defense.
| Stat | Minnesota | Indiana | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.30 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.3% | 45.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1% | 34.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.6 | 33.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1 | 12.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
