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Minnesota vs Purdue prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MINN 45% win55% PUR
27Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record 5–2 · #79 in ratings
Neutral site
Purdue Boilermakers
Record 3–4 · #68 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 43 vs 51
- Projected
- PUR favored
- Differential
- 1.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Purdue by 1.7
- Projected total
- 56.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Minnesota wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Purdue wins by 21+
- 10.8%
- Median score
- 27–29
- Model expectation
- 27.2–28.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Minnesota wins, bars on the left are Purdue wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Minnesota 27, Purdue 2060 games
- Minnesota 30, Purdue 2759 games
- Purdue 31, Minnesota 2753 games
- Purdue 27, Minnesota 2051 games
- Minnesota 27, Purdue 2448 games
- Purdue 34, Minnesota 2748 games
Where the edges are
Minnesota offense vs Purdue defenseOffense -3.4Defense -4.8Edge Minnesota: its offense is 1.4 points better than Purdue's defense.
Purdue offense vs Minnesota defenseOffense +5.2Defense +2.1Edge Purdue: its offense is 3.0 points better than Minnesota's defense.
| Stat | Minnesota | Purdue | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.01 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.3% | 45.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.6 | 31.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.