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Minnesota vs Washington prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MINN 49% win51% WASH
23.6Projected
vs
24.0ProjectedNeutral site
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record 5–2 · #79 in ratings
Neutral site
Washington Huskies
Record 4–3 · #77 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 43 vs 45
- Projected
- WASH favored
- Differential
- 0.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Washington by 0.5
- Projected total
- 47.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.3%
- Minnesota wins by 21+
- 7.8%
- Washington wins by 21+
- 8.7%
- Median score
- 23–24
- Model expectation
- 23.2–23.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Minnesota wins, bars on the left are Washington wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Minnesota 24, Washington 2068 games
- Minnesota 20, Washington 1761 games
- Washington 20, Minnesota 1759 games
- Washington 24, Minnesota 1759 games
- Washington 24, Minnesota 2059 games
- Minnesota 27, Washington 2055 games
Where the edges are
Minnesota offense vs Washington defenseOffense -3.4Defense -0.9Edge Washington: its defense is 2.5 points better than Minnesota's offense.
Washington offense vs Minnesota defenseOffense +0.1Defense +2.1Edge Minnesota: its defense is 2.0 points better than Washington's offense.
| Stat | Minnesota | Washington | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.14 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.3% | 43.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1% | 39.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.6 | 27.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1 | 22.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.